What is the Risk that a Timber Product is Illegally Sourced?

Industry, governments and environmental groups are looking for tools to better assess the risk of illegal timber entering into global trade flows and supply chains.  As illicit acts, forest crimes and illegal logging are difficult to monitor and great efforts are taken to hide them. Consistent global data on timber trade flows, let alone flows of illegal timber, are hard to access or do not exist.

This poses challenges for private sector who want to assess the risk of illegal timber entering their supply chains, and government agencies enforcing the growing number of national regulations designed to exclude illegal timber imports.

The Global Illegal Logging and Associated Trade Risk Assessment Tool (ILAT Risk) helps to fill in this information gap. Users can access global timber trade data, and ILAT Risk will also help raise flags on the risk of illegal timber entering a supply chain. ILAT Risk makes publicly available global trade data, as well as key proxies/indicators of risk for 211 countries.

This tool can be used to identify, quantify and categorize flows of timber and pulp & paper products between key producer, processing and consumer countries. The charts contained on the ILAT Risk tabs are interactive, allowing users to apply filters to examine specific trade flows and their potential risk of illegality. Data and charts can be downloaded from this website. We ask that you cite Forest Trends’ ILAT Risk website, as downloaded [date].

Project Methodology

Underlying data sources, methodology used to create risk indicators, and a glossary of key terms is available here.

This approach, using a new methodology to create proxies / indicators of risk, is not an absolute assessment of illegal logging risk for a source country. The analysis can only offer an indication of relative national-level “risk” (based on existing indices of corruption, governance, political and harvest risk) associated with a trading country. This data therefore offers insight into the initial stages of risk assessment, but should not be used in isolation or as an alternative to seeking out detailed location specific assessments of forest crime. Crimes can still occur in countries rated low risk, and there can be legal, sustainable, and/or certified timber produced in countries listed as high risk. All robust due diligence / care systems would need to investigate further.

Data Tool User Guide

A User Guide describing the functionality of the ILAT Risk Data Tool, including how to analyze data across tabs, apply filters, group results together, and download visualizations and underlying data is available here.

This work has been funded by the US Department of State through a grant to Forest Trends and the Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA)

Click here for a collection of Forest Trends publications related to ILAT Risk, including FT's Timber Legality Risk Country Dashboards.
Country
ILAT Risk Score
ILAT Risk Profile
Afghanistan
91.02
Higher Risk
Albania
47.01
Medium Risk
Algeria
76.84
Higher Risk
American Samoa
21.33
Lower Risk
Andorra
11.33
Lower Risk
Angola
84.86
Higher Risk
Anguilla
17.54
Lower Risk
Antigua and Barbuda
34.94
Medium Risk
Argentina
64.38
Higher Risk
Armenia
42.76
Medium Risk
Aruba
25.44
Medium Risk
Australia
4.14
Lower Risk
Austria
4.64
Lower Risk
Azerbaijan
52.29
Higher Risk
Bahamas
34.33
Medium Risk
Bahrain
38.11
Medium Risk
Bangladesh
78.64
Higher Risk
Barbados
31.58
Medium Risk
Belarus
31.08
Medium Risk
Belgium
7.71
Lower Risk
Belize
65.00
Lower Risk
Benin
64.64
Lower Risk
Bermuda
40.39
Medium Risk
Bhutan
33.51
Medium Risk
Bolivia
80.30
Higher Risk
Bosnia Herzegovina
58.46
Higher Risk
Botswana
28.68
Medium Risk
Brazil
59.64
Higher Risk
Brunei Darussalam
32.08
Medium Risk
Bulgaria
35.24
Medium Risk
Burkina Faso
64.32
Higher Risk
Burundi
93.06
Higher Risk
Cabo Verde
38.75
Medium Risk
Cambodia
81.35
Higher Risk
Cameroon
82.24
Higher Risk
Canada
3.39
Lower Risk
Cayman Isds
28.71
Medium Risk
Central African Rep.
85.57
Higher Risk
Chad
93.54
Higher Risk
Chile
44.51
Medium Risk
China
39.71
Medium Risk
Colombia
66.35
Higher Risk
Comoros
81.65
Higher Risk
Costa Rica
30.26
Medium Risk
Cote d'Ivoire
79.36
Higher Risk
Croatia
33.30
Medium Risk
Cuba
65.83
Higher Risk
Cyprus
26.06
Medium Risk
Czech Republic
8.68
Lower Risk
Dem. People's Rep. of Korea
94.85
Higher Risk
Dem. Rep. of the Congo
97.74
Higher Risk
Denmark
2.39
Lower Risk
Djibouti
72.82
Higher Risk
Dominica
37.32
Medium Risk
Dominican Rep.
59.92
Higher Risk
Ecuador
80.45
Higher Risk
Egypt
74.74
Higher Risk
El Salvador
54.04
Higher Risk
Equatorial Guinea
90.62
Higher Risk
Eritrea
94.20
Higher Risk
Estonia
6.04
Lower Risk
Ethiopia
80.57
Higher Risk
Fiji
44.92
Medium Risk
Finland
2.56
Lower Risk
France
9.33
Lower Risk
French Guiana
17.35
Lower Risk
FS Micronesia
58.14
Higher Risk
Gabon
86.88
Higher Risk
Gambia
65.67
Higher Risk
Georgia
26.04
Medium Risk
Germany
4.71
Lower Risk
Ghana
56.88
Higher Risk
Greece
38.73
Medium Risk
Greenland
7.64
Lower Risk
Grenada
39.45
Medium Risk
Guam
25.12
Medium Risk
Guatemala
73.57
Higher Risk
Guinea
83.11
Higher Risk
Guinea-Bissau
89.00
Higher Risk
Guyana
58.81
Higher Risk
Haiti
88.66
Higher Risk
Honduras
85.70
Higher Risk
Hong Kong
7.63
Lower Risk
Hungary
35.85
Medium Risk
Iceland
7.48
Lower Risk
India
65.02
Higher Risk
Indonesia
49.75
Medium Risk
Iran
84.76
Higher Risk
Iraq
93.61
Higher Risk
Ireland
5.34
Lower Risk
Israel
24.67
Lower Risk
Italy
38.09
Medium Risk
Jamaica
39.75
Medium Risk
Japan
6.68
Lower Risk
Jersey, Channel Isds
9.48
Lower Risk
Jordan
43.28
Medium Risk
Kazakhstan
49.53
Medium Risk
Kenya
68.56
Higher Risk
Kiribati
65.81
Higher Risk
Kosovo
44.91
Medium Risk
Kuwait
42.21
Medium Risk
Kyrgyzstan
63.68
Higher Risk
Lao PDR
88.87
Higher Risk
Latvia
16.30
Lower Risk
Lebanon
80.12
Higher Risk
Lesotho
63.32
Higher Risk
Liberia
80.71
Higher Risk
Libya
96.47
Higher Risk
Liechtenstein
7.31
Lower Risk
Lithuania
12.09
Lower Risk
Luxembourg
9.93
Lower Risk
Macao
23.71
Lower Risk
Madagascar
78.11
Higher Risk
Malawi
69.57
Higher Risk
Malaysia
29.37
Medium Risk
Maldives
65.44
Higher Risk
Mali
79.92
Higher Risk
Malta
22.53
Lower Risk
Marshall Isds
51.39
Higher Risk
Martinique
16.11
Lower Risk
Mauritania
79.39
Higher Risk
Mauritius
21.23
Lower Risk
Mexico
69.64
Higher Risk
Moldova
55.53
Higher Risk
Monaco
12.63
Lower Risk
Mongolia
48.12
Medium Risk
Montenegro
42.62
Medium Risk
Morocco
53.94
Higher Risk
Mozambique
81.59
Higher Risk
Myanmar
91.99
Higher Risk
Namibia
39.91
Medium Risk
Nauru
50.80
Higher Risk
Nepal
64.31
Higher Risk
Netherlands
8.12
Lower Risk
New Zealand
1.80
Lower Risk
Nicaragua
79.73
Higher Risk
Niger
77.06
Higher Risk
Nigeria
83.16
Higher Risk
North Macedonia
38.72
Medium Risk
Norway
2.17
Lower Risk
Oman
34.76
Medium Risk
Pakistan
80.73
Higher Risk
Palau
51.50
Higher Risk
Panama
41.44
Medium Risk
Papua New Guinea
83.43
Higher Risk
Paraguay
59.48
Higher Risk
Peru
67.34
Higher Risk
Philippines
60.63
Higher Risk
Poland
16.79
Lower Risk
Portugal
17.02
Lower Risk
Puerto Rico (US)
36.33
Medium Risk
Qatar
25.89
Medium Risk
Rep. of the Congo
90.51
Higher Risk
Rep. of Korea
13.88
Lower Risk
Reunion
23.70
Lower Risk
Romania
47.50
Medium Risk
Russia
77.54
Higher Risk
Rwanda
39.06
Medium Risk
Saint Kitts and Nevis
37.48
Medium Risk
Saint Lucia
31.53
Medium Risk
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
33.89
Medium Risk
Samoa
37.99
Medium Risk
San Marino
24.24
Lower Risk
Sao Tome and Principe
60.29
Higher Risk
Saudi Arabia
44.43
Medium Risk
Senegal
49.29
Medium Risk
Serbia
47.75
Medium Risk
Seychelles
35.28
Medium Risk
Sierra Leone
77.86
Higher Risk
Singapore
6.29
Lower Risk
Slovakia
18.90
Lower Risk
Slovenia
18.96
Lower Risk
Solomon Isds
70.95
Higher Risk
Somalia
99.61
Higher Risk
South Africa
22.51
Lower Risk
South Sudan
99.04
Higher Risk
Spain
17.22
Lower Risk
Sri Lanka
55.76
Higher Risk
State of Palestine
66.57
Higher Risk
Sudan
93.81
Higher Risk
Suriname
60.17
Higher Risk
Swaziland
48.86
Medium Risk
Sweden
2.74
Lower Risk
Switzerland
2.91
Lower Risk
Syria
96.86
Higher Risk
Taiwan
14.27
Lower Risk
Tajikistan
81.58
Higher Risk
Tanzania
67.95
Higher Risk
Thailand
58.06
Higher Risk
Timor-Leste
73.32
Higher Risk
Togo
71.91
Higher Risk
Tonga
46.83
Medium Risk
Trinidad and Tobago
51.45
Higher Risk
Tunisia
55.02
Higher Risk
Turkey
56.27
Higher Risk
Turkmenistan
87.21
Higher Risk
Tuvalu
31.48
Medium Risk
Uganda
72.65
Higher Risk
Ukraine
68.56
Higher Risk
Click here for a list of ILAT Risk Scores and Risk Profile Categorizations for 211 countries.
Click here to download Forest Trends' Methodology Guide for the ILAT Risk project, which includes information on data sources, the methodology used to create risk indicators, and a glossary of key terms.
Click here to download Forest Trends' User Guide describing the functionality of the ILAT Risk Data Tool, including how to analyze data across tabs, apply filters, group results together, and download visualizations and underlying data.