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Recent Developments in Forest Product Trade between Russia and China: Potential Production, Processing, Consumption and Trade Scenarios

By Steven Northway, Gary Bull, Anatoly Shvidenko, Luke Bailey
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China has a very significant role in the global timber market and this has significant ramifications for forests, forest livelihoods and the structure of forest industries around the world. In this report we will focus on possible future trends in the forest products1 processing, consumption and trade between China and its main suppliers, with a particular focus on Eastern Russia (Siberia and the Russian Far East). The data used for the
report preceded the global economic downturn which started in 2008. While the current downturn will likely have an impact on regional supply, processing, consumption and trade in the short-term, in the long-term it is expected that the global economy will recover and these trends will resume in a predictable fashion based on the data incorporated into the scenarios presented in this report. The International Forest and Forest
Products [IFFP] (Northway and Bull 2008) trade model was used as a modeling tool to undertake the analysis. It includes a model of the global industrial forest estate.