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Forest Products Trade Between Russia & China

Potential Production, Processing, Consumption and Trade Scenarios

By Steven Northway , Gary Q. Bull - University of British Columbia (UBC), Forest Trends, Rights & Resources Initiative (RRI)
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This synthesis report depicts future trends in forest products processing, consumption and trade between China and its main suppliers, with a particular focus on Siberia and the Russian Far East. It is based on the findings of the International Forest and Forest Products (IFFP) trade model analysis completed by Northway & Bull 2007. The first part of the analysis examines a status quo scenario for forest products supply, processing, consumption and trade, extrapolating to 2030, based on the current trends in China, Eastern Russia, Indonesia and the rest of the world. The authors then consider the implications of three different investment policy scenarios, which each represent an important policy goal of the current Russian national and provincial governments. These three key objectives are:
– Investment in Eastern Russia’s domestic harvest transportation infrastructure.
– Investment in Eastern Russia’s domestic sawmilling capacity.
– Simultaneous investment in transport and milling capacity.